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Last post I proposed benchmarks for what percentage of a B2C marcom budget should be spent on social media. The next logical question is how to allocate that spend. Clearly every product, business goal, world market and end user target will impact that answer. Despite the recent gains in more seniors adopting digital habits, I still wouldn't use the Old Spice video strategy to reach 65 and over Americans. Context matters.
Two ways to spend
Looking at just traditional marcom efforts (leaving out functions like customer care), there are two ways to spend on social media marcom. The first is campaign spending. This is what we awere all trained to do. It is also the only thing any of the awards programs out there pay attention to. The second is the sustained, persistent support of always-on platforms Like facebook and Twitter. We call it everyday engagement. Call it whatever you want but it has a lot to do with successfully building a direct relationship with customers and followers.
They are not exclusive. They work well together. It's tempting to put all the money in the campaign spend - the big YouTube play, the cgm/ugc contest, the unique Facebook tab. This is what will get you noticed inside and outside the company. But without the foundation of the everyday engagement, you may never keep that hard-won fanbase.
Like any new venture, building a foundation in social media requires investment in the early years. To get the "center for excellence," and its primary programs, off the ground, you need to hire some staff, spend on some first-time expenses, and learn from experience. Most of the everyday engagement effort - creating and publishing content, monitoring cgm, responding to people and customer care triage - do not require a big one-time cost. They require a recurring cost in human time and some expense.
The First Three Years
Year one - in the first year of true commitment to social media marcom, you can expect splitting a budget with most going to campaigns
campaign 80% everyday engagement 20%
Year two - now you can invest in some infrastructure. You have gained campaign success, earned points for social customer care Twitter handles, and generally proven to leadership that this is worth doing. Now is the time to get a Buddy Media or Vitrue license, trade-up on your Listening post, and float some more sophisticated campaigns
campaign 50% everyday engagement 50%
Year three: - truth is you will never dial back on your everyday engagement. What you will likely do is ramp up your paid media integrations with your truly "earned" social media efforts. It may not be fair to lump those in the equation here but I have. That's what explains the flop back in favor of campaign spend.
campaign* 80% everyday engagement 20%
How do you split your spending?
*includes some media spend. Take that out and your back to 50/50 or even 40/60
Last week I announced the launch of the 360 DI series on Gov 2.0 and our upcoming DI Ogilvy Exchange. There has been a phenomenal response to the upcoming panel. The following panelists are confirmed Ari Melber, The Nation and Politico; Mark Murray from NBC Universal; Lovisa Williams, Deputy Director from the State Department’s Office of Innovative Engagement; Alex Howard, O’Reilly’s Gov 2.0 correspondent; Micah Sifry, co-founder of the Personal Democracy Forum. The date is set for Monday September 27th.
As we enter the second week of our series of posts on Gov 2.0, we wanted to highlight/introduce some of the other members of the DI team interested in this space and their musings on Gov 2.0.
Kelly Ferraro-
In 2008, how I connected to the world began to change during the presidential election. A graduate student, I was more than familiar with the word-of-mouth power of Facebook, and was an early adopter and avid user. But at that time, I had been using social media simply to communicate with my law school peers, and keep in touch with family and friends.
Enter the election of 2008.
Suddenly, a platform that I had used to stay connected with people became a news resource for campaigns, expressing political views, sharing articles, and making donations. Instead of reading the New York Times or the Washington Post online, I would log in to Facebook for my daily news. There, I would find the latest campaign development through a shared article, or a conversation thread about a candidate.
But more importantly, Facebook coupled with other social media tools helped Barack Obama secure the presidency. With the use of various digital platforms, Barack Obama rejected public financing and raised a record-breaking $650 million, largely from private, individual on-line donations. And now, for the first time ever, we have a President who is accessible via Facebook, Twitter, and a blog.
To me, this shift means two things: ACCESSS and POWER.
In my view, Gov 2.0 is about the power and ability of citizens to gain access to government like never before. Gone are the days when writing a letter to Congress helped voice an issue. Today, you can send a 140-character message that’s publicly available to every follower of a Congressman.
Think about the bargaining power that holds! You can publish your message not just to the leader with whom you want to speak, but to every person paying attention to every move that leader makes. The pressure on the figure to respond is heightened when he or she is up for re-election, or is working on a contentious issue. In this sense, Gov 2.0 not only gives citizens greater access to their government, but also gives them greater power to leverage their voice and perhaps a greater change of getting a response.
The hope is that this heightened access and power will lead to action, and ultimately, change. I believe that is what will define the next iteration: Gov 3.0
Jackie Titus-
My Georgetown colleague, Mike Rupert, a Communications Director for a major government agency in DC was the first to introduce me to Gov 2.0 communications. By watching his work I learned about the power behind social media and digital communications for Government agencies. Mike changed the way his agency communicated with college students through a new website www.thisshouldbeillegal.com – the goal of the page is simple, “Helping Keep College Students Safe and Healthy in DC”. What I love about this work is the core mission of the agency stayed the same but the new approach facilitated a more direct conversation with the target audience.
At its core Gov 2.0 is taking the information the public is entitled to and makes it more accessible. However we know that this new form of communication is not just about pushing out more information and providing more access, it is also about a dialogue. Government agencies can scale their approach use it to raise widespread awareness or communicate at the local level about public safety and neighborhood alerts.
Charlie Tansill-
Integrating social media into government agencies will be a mammoth challenge. Bureaucracy, special interest organizations, national security, and resistance to change all present incredible obstacles; however, it is crucial that these challenges are overcome and that government begin to incorporate social media for many reasons.
1. Transparency: Especially in a democracy where officials are elected, it is crucial that the government be as transparent as possible. Citizens are not comforted by a government that is trying to hide their operations; rather, when a government is open, it breeds trust and confidence. Social media does exactly that: facilitates a more open, translucent, corruption-free and accountable government. Obama is a huge proponent of transparency and its importance in holding officials and policies accountable for their actions. There are even international organizations that exist for this very purpose such as Transparency International!
2. Empowerment: For the most part, social media is inexpensive, simple and mobile and, because of this, it brings a voice to more people; it provides another outlet through which common citizens can share a voice and be empowered. It encourages the power of Collective Intelligence!
3. Collaboration: Social media tools allow for quick information-sharing between international organizations, agencies, politicians, and humanitarian agencies, which allows for more partnerships and collaboration. Especially at a time when special interest groups have so much influence, social media tools could be used to combat this trend so that organizations can cross boundaries and work together toward the collective good.
These are just a few of the reasons I believe social media is critical to the future of government.
More details, including the launch of the Eventbrite are forthcoming. Please stay tuned to our blog for further information. Thank you for all your interest and support. We are very excited about the upcoming event.
Two recent posts, both in Fast Company, are a great reminder that when it comes to cultivating a company culture, sometimes it’s the little things that matter most.
In “It Isn’t Just a Myth: A Little Thanks Goes A Long Way,” Robert I. Sutton quotes an academic study that provides evidence for the value of a simple thank you:
“The simple act of having a boss come by and offer a public thanks to one group, and but not the other, really packed a wallop. These fundraisers were paid a fixed salary, so Grant and Gino compared the number of phone calls made be each fundraiser before and after the “thank you” intervention. The results were pretty impressive, as while there was no change in the average number of calls made by the group that was not offered thanks, the folks who heard a warm two sentence thank you from a boss made an average of about 50% more calls during the subsequent week.”
In “Chip Conley Took the Maslow Pyramid, Made It an Employee Pyramid and Saved His Company,” Kermit Patterson interviews the founder of the Joie de Vivre hotel chain, who’s just published a new book called Peak: How Great Companies Get Their Mojo from Maslow. Conley says, “What really is meaningful to people is genuine appreciation shown in real time. My basic belief is that life and business is all about where you pay your attention. Let’s pay some attention in our management and leadership to the idea of recognition. It’s not just platitude.”
What is the best way to make “thank you” a consistent part of a company’s culture?
Last week I completed my TEDWomen application. While no application questions specifically address gender, outlining my greatest achievements or imagining how a friend might describe me in the context of the conference has inspired me to do a substantial amount of personal navel gazing about my gender and specifically women in the workplace. As you might have guessed, this post won’t be about WOM so keep reading if you dare.
There was an active debate around having a separate TED conference on women – largely sparked by some awkward text that was used to introduce the notion of the event which is now resolved. I was torn less by the existence of such a conference and more by whether or not I would actually enjoy attending. God help me for admitting this, but I reacted very negatively to Eve Ensler’s performance at TED 2010. The work felt like it was directly pandering to the guilt of the powerful and largely male audience (who gave her an instant standing ovation). I sat and clapped politely. It was similar to the cringey feeling I had when watching the I am Woman karaoke scene in Sex and the City 2 and wanted to yell at the screen “I am NOT like you”. Meanwhile, lots of woman at TED 2010 inspired me greatly – including games researcher Jane McGonigal , the unique perspectives of Temple Grandin, and grand dame ocean-pioneer Sylvia Earle. Gender had nothing to do with their work or what they spoke about. So, am I uncomfortable with women who use their femaleness as a “hook” for work, artistic expression, or popularity? For whom it is their “shtick”? Am I a self-hater who wants to be a man deep down? No, indeed.
Being a woman in the workplace comes with its own unique set of opportunities and challenges. I am now of the mind that not discussing it or attempting to ignore its differentness is fruitless and is not going to help me or anyone else excel. From the trivialities of navigating the minefields of workplace dress to gracefully handling assumptions and double standards of others, it is just different. Whenever I get the at-least-weekly well meaning comment “it must be hard to be away from your son so much”, it takes every ounce of decorum I have to maintain a normal tone of voice and reply that while it is, it is also difficult for my male colleagues who have similar schedules and families, but we love what we do and are lucky have strong support at home.
It is this minor epiphany that sparked me to apply. Could I do a better job of understanding, coaching and growing those around me? Could I do more to give back to other women in my community at large and in other cultures? And could I do that more adeptly with more knowledge and ideas? Without a doubt. Regardless of whether or not I make the grade on attendance for this event, the process has certainly made me a bit more thoughtful about who I am as a woman in business and how I choose to handle myself and invest in those around me. I firmly believe there is an authentic path that is neither Devil Wears Prada nor Mary Poppins and, while I am bound to stumble upon it innumerable times, it is a path worth travelling.
When marketing on behalf of regulated industries (such as the healthcare companies that I spend the majority of my time focusing on), working within strict guidelines is a large part of the process - both from an external perspective (FDA, FTC, HIPPA, etc) but often internally as well. Legal and regulatory experts work to help companies stay within safe boundaries by providing review and oversight, which can often challenge marketers who want to be cutting edge as they draw attention and appeal to their target audiences.
Using new communications channels, such as social media, can provide new challenges for those working to keep their companies safe. But regulation and innovation don’t need to be at odds with one another. Below are just a few sample ways marketers can work with those providing regulatory and legal oversight to leverage the Social tools their customers are rapidly consuming.
What percentage of a B2C or B2B brand's budget should be spent in strategies and tactics that we would label "social media-related?" Within that percentage, how should the money really be applied with the big amorphous box we all call social media? Big questions. I find it hard to generalize while at the same time am driven to try and do just that. I want to establish some benchmarks based upon all of the brand work I have seen or touched in my job. Clearly what is right for a Unilever may be very different than what is right for a Siemens. Selling cars (Ford) is dramatically different than mobile phones (LG). Running your business in North America may be very different than China.
All these differences aside. I do see a common trajectory of 'spend' at least as applied to B2C and separately to B2B. That path has more to do with increased experience in social media tactics, the adoption of, what I will call, a social media business mindset and the integration path for social media going forward.
Experience in social media tactics - For simplicity's sake, lets look at what most marketers go through (including this one). Here are three stages of adoption:
Social media business mindset - Is using social media an obligation due to outside pressures (your CEO, board, competitors all told you to do it in one way or another)? Or do you see a way - perhaps murky now - but a way that all of the implied qualities of social media may actually change your business? I see plenty of CMOs and CCOs who fit into both camps. So, the choice is between social media as obligation or social media as quest.
Integration path - The future value of social media is integrated in every discipline. Just as all marketers hoped that "digital" would be the new normal in marketing (it pretty much has), we expect that social strategies and tactics will be integrated in many disciplines. Look at Coach's The Poppy Project. Anchored by a microsite and a "Stumble Upon-like" tour of great fashion blogs, how much of this is social media vs. what we consider digital marketing? How much was the whole project spend and what would you label it? You could probably do it if you had the numbers. Now think ahead into the future. As programs get more complex, Facebook Open Graph becomes ubiquitous, brands adopt Social IRM - what can be distinguished as social media and therefore "budgeted" becomes harder and harder.
In many cases, brands will likely embrace the most valuable output of social media - advocacy (or word of mouth) and engagement - as 'must haves' for every program and brand. Key activities will continue to be labeled social media while more and more social elements will get baked into PR, user experience, digital marketing and more. In this way social budgets will be dispersed in the organization.
Rilla Delorier, CMO of Suntrust Bank, mentioned via AdAge:
"The great thing is less than 5% of my total spend is in social media. We've reached over a million customers this year through that mechanism. It's a very efficient way to get feedback on what's working and what's not."
She said this in context of a program called Live Solid. This features a microsite with embedded YouTube videos, a Facebook page and a Twitter handle amongst may other online tactics (SEO? SEM? Display? CRM?) and likely some related offline programs as well.
I don't have an inside view of Suntrust's experience. As a customer, this is the first remotely social program I have experienced. I figure that they are in the Experiments/Quest or Adoption/Obligation quadrant. What I can't tell from her quote is whether Rilla is a believer on a quest or proud of the fact that she only spent >5% to be able to check the "social" box.
Spend Matrix
Here's my view of total spend in single market from a prototypical $10m B2C marcom budget (modest to some, inadequate for big brands)
Mindset
Obligation
Quest
Well-Integrated*
Stage
Experiments
1%
5%
na
Adoption
5%
10%
6% (12%)
“Go Big”
7%
12%
10% (17%)
Percentage of prototypical $10m marcom budget
*budgets get lower as money is integrated into other functions. Total percentage is in ()
If you haven’t yet seen the Emmy winning Old Spice commercials in action and haven’t quoted the Old Spice Guy at least once in conversation over the past few months, you must be sleeping under a rock (well, okay, maybe only a few fanatics are actually quoting the commercials…).
Never-the-less, the Old Spice phenomenon has created a surge of conversation around virality and brand engagement with the online audience. But let’s talk about the brand personality, because - to me - that’s one of the main things that really made this campaign go big.
So, what makes a great brand personality?
- Authenticity: Companies like Sharpie and VTech (an Ogilvy client) have recruited either internal brand fans (like @SharpieSusan) or external fans to actively get involved in social media conversation. These individuals are fully transparent with the audience, helping the audience to understand where they come from and how they can relate. Maria Pilar Clark, the VTech Mom, is a mom of two and loves helping her kids learn, so she has a great connection with other moms interested in VTech toys.
- Consistency: Talk about consistency - how does 205 Old Spice videos sound?? Whatever your brand personality is, make sure you keep it consistent. Don’t be the voice of the Old Spice Guy one day and Jimmy Fallon the next. Think about the conversations you plan to have through the eyes of your brand personality. Answer a few of the questions from Brian’s Solis’ new book, Engage:
If the brand was a person, how would it appear? How would it sound? How would it interact with others? How would others describe it?
Then keep that in mind whenever you create your content and conversation.
- Engagement: As John Bell mentioned in his CNN Commentary, the Old Spice campaign actively listened to the audience and engaged on a one-on-one basis with some of the audience members through direct video response.)
- Entertainment Factor:Whether you are creating a new drama skit every day/week like the Old Spice Guy, sharing new Sharpie art work or simply bantering back and forth with others, your audience will come back if they like what you’re giving them. This goes back to the ever-present value exchange — what is your audience looking for? What will make them come back to your brand time and again? Now add in your brand personality and ‘voila!’ you may just have entertainment!
- Versatility: Expand your brand personality’s horizons from commercials to direct response viral videos, from a Twitter handle to a personality column in the consumer e-newsletter. (*LIGHTBULB*) From an online presence to an offline presence! A great example: If your bored, or need some more Old Spice entertainment, go ahead and create your personalized Old Spice voicemail…
Of course all this goes back to your brand definition. Make sure you understand your brand’s core values, it’s history, it’s business and communication objectives as you look to define (or spice up) the brand personality in social media. To help with this understanding, check out Brian Solis’s Brand Reflection Style - a great way to map out your brand’s personality and persona.
Naspers and DST are not household names, but they have long fascinated me for their huge level of ownership and influence over Social Media globally.
If the global evolution of Social Media interests you, watch these companies. They have a track record of being smart, fast and highly intelligent investors.
Their strategy: Arbitrage Internet experience across geographies by investing in developing world markets where most Western investors are reluctant to go.
The graph to the left, from a Naspers document, outlines the company’s investment strategy matrix.
The investment world now seems to be taking more notice of the companies, with The Economist writing a short but informative piece about Naspers and DST.
Some highlights:
Naspers:
- Based in Cape Town, Naspers is nearly 100 years old and is the publisher of the Daily Sun, South Africa’s biggest newspaper.
- Using cash thrown off by print and pay TV sales – 28 billion rand ($3.6 billion) in the year to March – it has invested around the globe in Social Media and Internet.
- Naspers owns part of mail.ru, was an early investor in Tencent (now holds 35% owner).
- Naspers has the largest portfolio of internet firms in developing countries, for instance in Brazil (BuscaPé, a comparison-shopping site), India (ibibo, a social network) and at home in South Africa (24.com, a portal).
DST
- Created in 2005 when two Russian Internet investors, Yuri Milner and Gregory Finger pooled their interests in mail.ru, a Russian web portal
- Today the firm controls many of the country’s leading websites and account for more than 70% of page-views on the Russian-language internet
- Eclectic ownership which includes Goldman Sachs and Alisher Usmanov, a Russian billionaire, who holds 27%.
- The websites of Digital Sky Technologies (DST)
- DST’s prime investment territories include Russia and neighbors, with investments that include social networks such as VKontakte.ru and Nasza-Klasa.pl
- DST paid an estimated $800m for a 10 percent stake in Facebook. When Elevation Partners recently invested $120m in Facebook, that deal put the company’s value at $23 billion, implying that DST’s investment has almost trebled.
- Some analysts say that DST overpaid for Zynga, the world’s largest online-gaming service, and for Groupon, a website that aggregates buyers and gets them special deals. But DST may prove these critics wrong again.
- DST has experimented with a range of revenue models for social networks and online games, such as charging for services and selling virtual goods. In December it merged mail.ru with Astrum Online, a gaming firm—in effect forming a Russian equivalent to China’s Tencent. Free communication tools such as instant messaging are creating the audience that then pays for other services and virtual goods, according to the company.
Tencent follows suit?
China’s Social Media giant, Tencent is interlinked with both DST and Naspers. For those unfamiliar, Tencent is the Shenzhen-based company founded in 1998 that has grown revenue to $1.8 billion in 2009. Although best known for QQ, a popular instant-messaging service with 567m users, much of its profits come from online games and a virtual currency, called Q coins. Users purchase this with real money and use it to buy digital wares, such as virtual weapons to increase the powers of their avatars.
- Tencent bought 10 percent of DST in April for $300mn (Giving DST a valuation of about $3 billion)
- Tencent has an interest in the Indian arm of MIH, Naspers’s internet division.
- Tencent may be following the Naspers and DST in overseas investment, having purchased a minority stake in Vietnam’s VinaGame.
h/t to David Tiltman and Arun Sudhaman
In Tokyo for a week and speaking at the FCC of Japan on Monday. Please join! Details below and on the FCCJ website. Planning to discuss the below topic, but make it highly interactive, based on what people in the audience want to discuss.
Professional Luncheon
Thomas Crampton
Asia-Pacific Director of 360 Digital Influence, Ogilvy Public Relations
Worldwide
12:30-14:00 Monday, August 30, 2010
(The speech and Q & A will be in English)
Getting Business Results from Social Media : Digital Influence & Asia
How are companies and individuals using social media to communicate, buy, sell and interact in this new digital age? What does a former award- winning journalist turned ‘digital influence’ strategist see as the major changes shaping communications and commerce in Asia?
Thomas Crampton, Asia-Pacific director of 360 Digital Influence for Ogilvy Public Relations Worldwide, heads a team stretching across 23 cities in 15 Asian territories that helps companies conceive, develop and execute strategies in Social Media.
Find out how the firms and individuals you cover are using social media. He will show how companies ‘listen’ to on-line conversations, plan influencer maps and execute social media engagement. As a former journalist, he is uniquely qualified to talk about how digital influence has changed the way news is made, gathered, shared and disseminated by companies and individuals.
Prior to joining Ogilvy, Crampton spent 18 years as a globetrotting newspaper correspondent, mainly for the International Herald Tribune and The New York Times, reporting from five continents and dozens of countries. He writes a widely read blog, thomascrampton.com, and is a frequent keynote speaker and moderator at high profile conferences around the world, from the World Economic Forum in Davos to Le Web in Paris.
Please reserve in advance, 3211-3161 or http://www.fccj.or.jp (still & TV cameras inclusive). The charge for members/non-members is 1,350/2,300 yen for the sandwich plate (tandoori chicken wrap with cucumber raita,
bean sprouts, coriander, red onion, cashew nuts) and 1,700/2,600 yen for the hot plate (baked grouper with herb crust, lyonnaise potatoes, spinach, baked tomato & herb oil), non-members eligible to attend may pay in cash. Reservations canceled less than one hour in advance for working press members, and 24 hours for all others, will be charged in full. Reservations and cancellations are not complete without confirmation.
Professional Activities Committee
According to Comscore, over 25 million users accessed Facebook via a mobile phone in Jan 2010, a 112% year-over-year increase.
With its initial US-based rollout of Places location functionality on the 30+ million iPhone installed base, Facebook joins Twitter and others in embracing the growing use of smartphones for social networking.
Importantly, this change allows Facebook to expand users’ social graphs beyond such items as friends, product/service affinities and demographics to now include location.
Here are three thoughts on implications for marketers, agencies and social location startups:
Location checkins should help drive impulse and, to some extent, planned purchases. It’s clear that coupons, discounts and other promotions will be important for increasing share of wallet — particularly for the impulse purchases estimated to account for 20+% of consumer spending. Companies like Shopkick are already implementing functionality to enable this, and it’s clearly going to be of value in driving revenue for a wide range of companies.
Checkins will provide new opportunities to build relationships and better understand customers. Less promotional location-driven engagement will be helpful in increasing preference and loyalty. If a user must check into a location manually, they’re either doing so for convenience (e.g. to locate friends or offers nearby) or as self-expression. The latter provides an interesting opportunity for a brand to engage — for example, by providing messaging or advice that’s related to the type of location visited. This also provides an opportunity for B2B brand engagement.
Social network partners may well provide more unique experiences for brands. Much as well-designed social games from companies like Zynga and Playdom have created a powerful draw for Facebook users (consuming ~40% of Facebook user minutes), startups like SCVNGR, Gowalla, Foursquare and Booyah will likely use Facebook graph + location data to create interesting experiences. They’ll have the added opportunity to integrate data across Facebook, Twitter and other non-Facebook smartphone users.
One of the biggest potential issues to consider is user privacy — the current implementation has some issues that have been widely written about. However, in the past Facebook has eventually responded with changes to enable users to manage their privacy in an acceptable way.
Read more about key steps for brands to start taking.
Photo credit: Graph, by Librarian by Day
Our colleagues at Parker & Partner, Ogilvy PR’s Australian Public Affairs affiliate, sent out this piece to clients after the weekend’s deadlocked election. Enjoy.
The age of uncertainty
Uncertainty. It’s not something we’re accustomed to in the outcome of Federal elections but given where the numbers last night we will have quite a few days and maybe weeks of it. What the campaign lacked in policy differences was made up for in drama. And so the drama continues.
As the polls predicted Australia was amazingly divided. Queensland saw a significant anti-Labor sentiment translate into a 9.4 per cent swing away from the Government (split between the LNP and Greens) and the loss of up to nine seats. New South Wales wasn’t far behind with a 7 per cent swing, while Victoria and Tasmania said “no thanks” to Tony Abbott, with gains to the Government of 2 per cent and 1.2 per cent respectively. South Australia saw swings away from both Labor and the Coalition to the Greens who gained 3.2 per cent, while the West continued to be a stronghold for the Coalition with a state-wide 3.2 per cent gain.
Officially the ALP and Coalition sit on 71 seats each with four seats in doubt. We will definitely have three independents (Rob Oakeshott in Lyne, Tony Windsor in New England, and Bob Katter in Kennedy) and one green (Adam Bandt in Melbourne). The three independents have quickly come to a consensus to negotiate as a bloc – so at this stage can be counted as three “country independent” seats to go to whichever party can give them the best outcome.
The best that either side can do is 75 seats – just short of the magic number of 76. But it looks likely both sides will end up in a stalemate on 73 seats each, or a split of 73-72 if Denison falls to the Independent Andre Wilkie (see below).
Both sides are formulating what they are prepared to put on the table for negotiations and will soon put them forward for consideration. For the next week or so — and maybe longer – the centre of Australian political power shifts from Canberra to Mt Isa, Tamworth and Port Macquarie.
Seats in doubt
Four or five seats remain in doubt today, and it is the outcomes of these competitions that will decide who forms the next Government. The Australian Electoral Commission says both major parties have 71 seats each. While neither Labor nor the Coalition can get to the magic 76 seats to govern in their own right, if one party ends up with more seats than the other they will be given the opportunity, and will have a greater chance, of forming the next Government.
(The AEC is counting Dennison in Tasmania on the Labor side of the ledger. There is an outside chance, if preferences fall the right way and in the right order, that Dennison will go to independent Andrew Wilkie, former Office of National Assessments whistle-blower and the man who stood for the Greens against John Howard in Bennelong in 2004.)
The four remaining seats in doubt are Brisbane (Queensland), Lindsay (NSW), Corangamite (Victoria) and Hasluck (Western Australia). In all but Brisbane the ALP is ahead by narrow margins. In ordinary circumstances postal votes and pre-polls would be expected to favour the incumbent MP (Labor in all of these cases), but as OTR has previously noted, this election is anything other than ordinary.
Yarralumla here we come
It is inevitable there will be mutterings of a “constitutional crisis: as a result – or rather lack of result – from yesterday’s poll. While it is 70 years since Australia had a minority federal government, there have been at least ten examples of minority administrations in Australian states and territories over the last two decades.
There are no formal rules associated with forming minority government following a hung election other than an expectation that the party and leader best able to form a stable majority in the Lower House should be appointed. Experience in Australia through the last 21 years shows that in several instances minority governments have been formed on the basis of agreements with the major party holding the most seats in the Lower House, but this has not occurred not in every case.
Notwithstanding the lack of procedural law and explicit conventions, minority governments are generally based on a formal accord, charter or parliamentary agreement, setting out:
[T]he conditions under which the political arrangements are to operate, at least in relation to no confidence motions and supply bills. Further, as a condition for their support of a minority government, minor party or Independent Members of Parliament often require the inclusion of certain reform measures in these charters or agreements. Another innovation on this minority government theme is the inclusion in Cabinet of minor party or Independent Members in “loose coalition” with a major party, again subject to a written statement of the terms and conditions for such involvement”
(Griffiths ,G. Parliament of NSW Discussion paper 2010).
So the key term is “conditional”, and the ability of the ALP or Coalition to obtain agreement from independents and Greens to secure support to ensure the fundamentals of stable government — parliamentary confidence in the Prime Minister and government and passage of monetary supply.
The principle of responsible government dictates that within caretaker arrangements, the Governor-General will continue to receive advice from the incumbent Prime Minister. This includes Julia Gillard’s advice on her Party’s ability to form and sustain a stable government.
It is the G-G’s reserve powers, however, that may well play the deciding card in the wash up from yesterday’s election.
The reserve powers of the Governor-General include:
The power to appoint a Prime Minister if an election results in a hung Parliament
The power to dismiss a Prime Minister in circumstances where the House of Representatives has passed a “no confidence” motion against the PM
The power to refuse to dissolve the House of Representatives contrary to ministerial advice. The refusal by a Governor-General to dissolve House on ministerial advice has been the most frequently used of the reserved powers in Australia.
In addition, as the annals of Australian political history well document, these also include the power to dismiss a Prime Minister in circumstances where the Government cannot obtain supply and the Prime Minister refuses to resign or to call an election. The decision by the independent and Greens MPs in determining the level of stability has more riding on it than many may initially appreciate. Undoubtedly their interests are best served by ensuring the longest possible term until the next election. One can be certain that Quentin Bryce AC (a Queenslander appointed by Prime Minister Rudd) will be swotting up on Constitutional Law over the next few days.
Gang of Four
There are currently four MPs who look set to hold the balance of power in the House of Representatives (with the possibility of a fifth from Tasmania joining them on the cross benches).
Although their previous associations with the Nationals may signal a natural sympathy with the conservative side of politics, it must be remembered that Katter, Windsor and Oakeshott are consciously not Nationals MPs, having left in circumstances which have given rise to difficult relationships between them and their former Party. There is no love lost between Katter and Windsor and Nationals leaders Warren Truss and Barnaby Joyce.
Bob Katter has held the seat of Kennedy in outback northern Queensland since 1993. Originally elected as a National Party MP, he resigned and become an Independent in 2001 due to an increasing disagreement with the Coalition on economic and social policies. He is a former member of the Queensland Parliament and calls himself a climate change sceptic.
Former farmer Tony Windsor has held the seat of New England in New South Wales since 2001, when he took the seat away from the Nationals. He is experienced in holding the balance of power after doing so at a State level in the NSW Lower House in the mid-90s.
Rob Oakeshott is the newest member of the trio, elected to the seat of Lyne in NSW in a 2008 by-election following the resignation of former National’s Leader Mark Vaile. Like the others, Oakeshott is also a former State MP, as the Nationals and then independent member for the NSW state seat of Port Macquarie.
Adam Bandt is a former industrial lawyer with Julia Gillard’s old law firm Slater and Gordon. He has taken two campaigns to win Melbourne from Labor, allowing him to create a strong profile locally and nationally.
Declaration of Independents
Sitting in an unprecedented position of power, cross-bench members will want to negotiate a stable power-sharing deal that will allow their position to endure for a three-year parliamentary term, rather than merely shoring up the government before a quick return to the polls. In addition to Katter, Windsor, Oakeshott and Bandt, the Nationals’ Tony Crook, who took the West Australian wheat-belt seat of O’Connor from the Liberals’ Wilson Tuckey, is signalling he will sit on the cross-benches.
Several issues will be pivotal for the three “country independent” members in negotiating with the two major parties. Katter, Windsor and Oakeshott, all of whom are experienced parliamentarians, will agree on a common set of principles for negotiating with the major parties, a pact they made prior to the election. The three have broadly similar interests in negotiating a better deal for their regional and rural constituencies, including better health care, ensuring a sustainable population, and upgraded broadband services, bringing the broadband policy debate strongly into play.
Katter advocates for an eclectic mix of changes, including the reintroduction of trade protection to benefit the banana, beef and dairy industries, breaking the major supermarket duopoly and cutting down on a range of taxes he sees as imposing on individual liberties. Although he has already indicated he would support an ALP government, Adam Bandtâ€s support has the potential to be recognised through key policy undertakings. Together with his Greens colleagues he is expected to fight for outcomes on climate change policy, dental care to be included on Medicare, same-sex marriage and more generous treatment of asylum seekers.
Although Tony Crook is yet to outline his position in detail, the fact he is a Western Australian Nationals MP suggests he is likely to be well versed in the “Royalties for Regions”-style regional funding deal that his State leader Brendan Grylls negotiated with West Australian Premier Colin Barnett.
An intense and complex few days of negotiation await us.
The only certainties
Even at this early stage of counting there are two certainties from last night’s half Senate election results.
First, the current Senate composition and voting dynamics remain in play until July 2011 with Liberal Senator Gary Humphries retaining his ACT Senate seat. In the case of a returned Gillard Government and assuming Party unity, there are two options for legislative passage through the Senate; either with the support of the Coalition or with the block vote of the Greens plus Steve Fielding and Nick Xenophon. A minority Coalition Government would be presented with four options to secure its legislation through the Senate as the Greens, Fielding, Xenophon or the ALP, could all individually provide enough support to secure an absolute Seante majority.
Second, is that the Australian Greens will hold the balance of power in its own right post-July 2011. It is anticipated the Greens will extend its Senate representation from five to possibly nine seats. At this early stage of the count it appears the Greens’ gains have come at the expense of the Coalition, which has lost two to five Senate seats. Family First Senator Steve Fielding has also lost his Victorian seat, but could possibly be replaced by a Democratic Labor Party candidate.
Media quoteSeriously, I love the Australian people. This result is really the only possible honest response to that campaign.
- Annabel Crabb on Twitter
Political quotesThe Liberal and National parties are back in business, we stand ready to govern and we stand ready to offer the Australian people stable, predictable and competent government.
- Opposition Leader Tony Abbott
Friends, Bill Clinton once famously said: the people have spoken but it’s going to take a little while to determine exactly what they’ve said.
- Prime Minister Julia Gillard
Next month, the Digital Influence team will be partnering with others at Ogilvy Public Relations Worldwide to bring you an Ogilvy Exchange on Government. The working title of the event: How Social Media Tools are Shaping Government, the 2010 Elections and Issue Campaigns.
In 2008, the Obama administration swept into the White House in large part transported on the wings of the Netroots – the fundraising and voter mobilization of his online supporters was unprecedented. With this administration came the ideals of the Open Gov Directive and Gov 2.0: transparent, participatory government. Two years later we can’t help but ask the following questions:
What happened to the momentum?
Does it still exist?
How has it evolved?
Are these ideals being fulfilled in government?
What are some of the best, innovative case studies of what is possible in this space?
What does the future hold?
What do the Administration, the media and the campaign stakeholders think is next for 2010 and 2012?
How is the next generation of political advocates going to bring together social media to create a movement, to raise money, to organize locally, to fight opposition campaigns and to get out the vote?
Will the Republicans be able to capitalize on this power as well as the Democrats?
We realize that this topic is vast and one that will take several conversations to cover. Consequently, we are hopeful that this Ogilvy Exchange will be the first of many where we begin to discuss these questions. In parallel, the 360Di team is launching a series of blog posts on government that we hope to publish on a weekly basis to continue to explore this topic in a more thorough manner.
We are very excited to share that the following speakers have expressed an interest in participating in our Exchange: Micah Sifry from Personal Democracy Forum; Ari Melber from the Nation and Politico; Mark Murray from NBC Universal; Lovisa Williams, Deputy Director from the State Department’s Office of Innovative Engagement. We will be providing more details as speakers are confirmed. We look forward to having you join us at this event!
For more details on the event and how to get involved you can reach me at Kety.Esquivel@OgilvyPR.com.
I just got back from a first time-trip to Edinburgh. The highlight as many of you likely know was the Edinburgh Fringe Festival which takes over the city for about 5 weeks in August and September and segues into the not-so-fringe Edinburgh Festival. The Fringe is hundreds, if not thousands, of performances - theater, comedy, dance, music, children's shows, opera and more. Shows are happening at a couple hundred venues across town from the morning until late into the night. It's an exciting (and trying) time to be in Edinburgh.
My question is how do you navigate such long tail abundance?
Many of the residents sample the shows. One refrain I heard often was that the prices of shows have gone up to the point where sampling with your feet (walking in and out of shows) was no longer realistic. Our cheapest ticket was about 7 pounds although I saw quite a few below that and even some free shows. Our priciest ticket was probably 16 pounds.
I am no expert on the Fringe. But I shouldn't have to be to figure out where to place my bets, so to speak. I saw marketing break down in 4 basic categories:
Print and Out-of-Home
This festival runs on paper. The wall posters were everywhere. Giant grids of posters showing a range of design and advertising skill. Pretty soon, it all became a pattern of colors, shapes and faces who I felt I should recognize but didn't. An official Fringe guide was a nice size book with entries for every show. It felt like a small phone book. Browsing it became a lifetime ambition. If you had the iPhone app as I did, there was no real reason to refer back to the book. I will say that the brand consistency between the program, Web site and the app was very strong and gave me confidence that I was looking in the right place.
Human Experience
Performers and supporting staff were out on the streets handing out the other over-abundant print object - postcards. There were postcards everywhere. We all walked home with stacks of 5-10 from any given stroll. It seemed rude not to accept postcards from struggling performers. Sometimes the performers would try and coax you into a show about to start. One group of "Bagpipe Dads" followed us humming their human bagpipe sound until we took their postcards and made a gesture that suggested we would consider attending the show.
This human experience is clearly part of the charm and helps make the sidewalks come alive. Most are in costume so you would be getting cards from zombies, warriors, kilt-wearing Scotsmen, fairies and punks.
Digital Utility
The Web site is very strong and has one thing the truly great iPhone app didn't have - reviews. First the app. The darned thing was designed really well. It was synced to your clock so when it launched, it displayed the next shows by time. You could sort by category and make a time selection. This really pays off on one of the chief attendee behaviors - attending a show based upon time of day and serendipity. More importantly, it allows you to tag shows and create a favorites list. It is much easier to browse and track availabilities for a dozen shows then several hundred.
But the app didn't have reviews. That is the one big thing the entire experience was missing. Then, of course, I realized when I got home that the Web site had reviews - both official critics and the crowd. Had I known, I would definitely have used the reviews to make some choices. Problem is that I was often out and about while making those choices. the reviews really needed to be baked into the app to be truly useful.
Social Web
The Twitter tag was #edfringe and I followed it prior to arrival. I am sure there were all sorts of other tags associated with particular venues or even shows. I just wouldn't have had any reason to use those unless I was more of an insider. Because I was traveling and ringing up a fair charge for data, I limited my FourSquare usage so I never figured out if the venues were really leveraging that platform. But again, it wouldn't help a newbie select a show more than reward a repeat user at a particular venue (again, there were hundreds of venues and no reason to stay at one).
I was traveling with my family. Had I been on my own, I likely would have looked for tweet-ups and other social gatherings and memes to participate in.
Two things for next year:
A great experience. If you go, get the app.
And last but not least, check out this Flickr gallery for some great shots of the people there.
An article in the New York Times last week, “What Is It About 20-Somethings?”, instantly caught my eye. After all, I am myself a 20-something, and it’s always interesting to scrutinize what people unlike you scientifically conclude about people like you. I remember taking my first psychology class in high school and learning about adolescence. My text book told me that I, as a teen, was emotional, struggling with self-identity, and that I was rebellious. At the time, I thought this was a stretch. But in retrospect, this was probably spot-on.
Now in 2010, the question “Why are so many people in their 20s taking so long to grow up?” seems to be at top of mind to many top social psychologists.
New York Times journalist Robin Marantz Henig sums it up nicely: “ It’s a development that predates the current economic doldrums, and no one knows yet what the impact will be…The traditional cycle seems to have gone off course, as young people remain untethered to romantic partners or to permanent homes, going back to school for lack of better options, traveling, avoiding commitments, competing ferociously for unpaid internships or temporary (and often grueling) Teach for America jobs, forestalling the beginning of adult life.”
Jeffery Jensen Arnett, a psychology professor at Clark University in Worcester, MA, is pushing for a recognized new stage in life called “emerging adulthood”. Due to a growing need for higher education in U.S. based on the job market, the acceptance of premarital sex, and the diminishing pressure for people in their 20s to marry young, Arnett believes that “emerging adulthood” is a time that young adults explore their possibilities while they have an uncertain future, and really engage in self-focus and awareness. “Emerging adulthood” is not yet a recognized stage in life due to a great deal of debate, particularly because it can’t be applied to developing countries. The “failure to launch” epidemic that is found in this period of life can only be applied to industrialized countries.
So what would happen if “emerging adulthood” became a recognized life stage? I believe that the social marketing implications would be vast. Just think. Adolescence wasn’t an accepted stage in life until 1904, coined by G. Stanley Hall. Once it was recognized, healthcare, education, and even laws were adapted to provide special services aimed at this group. And because of this, we now have numerous social marketing programs aimed to reduce teen violence, programs to keep teenagers sober and off drugs, and programs to decrease adolescent obesity, just to name a few.
If “emerging adulthood” was commonly accepted by individuals and governments alike, I could easily foresee behavioral social marketing programs aimed at 20-somethings to help them gain independence from parents. And because substance abuse tends to become a more serious problem when those affected are in their early 20s, I could foresee programs specifically targeted at this age group…focusing on getting treatment, rather than prevention. In addition to this, I can envision social marketing programs with a goal to reduce 20-something anxiety. People in their 20s have so much pressure to get so many things accomplished in a short amount of time. We’re supposed to get an education, and now even a bachelor’s degree doesn’t seem to be enough. We’re supposed to find jobs we like, but somehow make enough money to establish ourselves and pay off our often tens of thousands of dollars in student loans. We’re supposed to decide if we want a life partner, and if so, we’re supposed to find them. We’re supposed to maintain friendships to last a lifetime, and we also need to start taking care of our parents as they’re getting older. Wouldn’t it be great if the government encouraged us to all do yoga and provided free yoga classes in every metropolitan city? Just kidding (kind of).
At this point, there really is no way to know whether or not “emerging adulthood” will actually become an accepted and recognized stage in life. It will be interesting to follow the debate as the months and perhaps years go by. But one thing is certain—we as social marketers, will unquestionably be involved.
Last week, I attended CDC’s National Health Communication, Marketing, and Media conference in Atlanta. And whether you call it new media, social media, or Web 2.0—the new tactics available online and via mobile devices took center stage at the conference. The presentation, “Social Marketing and the Uses of Social Media: Cases from the American Red Cross, American Legacy Foundation (Legacy), U.S. Census Bureau, and Ad Council” provided the most thought provoking example of the diversity of outcomes that can be influenced by social media.
Throughout the conference, presenters reiterated that social media is a tool or tactic to be used to achieve a goal. Often, because people get excited about the next new things, they say, “We need a Twitter account!” instead of, “What could a Twitter account do for us?” The desired outcome needs to drive the choice of tools. Perhaps the best example of that oft-repeated maxim is Legacy’s two-pronged approach to reducing the rate of smoking in the US, the truth® and EX® campaigns.
You are probably familiar with truth’s hard-hitting, eye-catching ads that position rebellion against big tobacco as a better way for teens to assert independence than smoking. This campaign is all about viral communications—pushing out edgy, fun, sharable materials for teens to take ownership of and pass on. Recognizing that most smokers start as teens, Legacy’s goal with truth is to reduce the number of teens who start smoking. To do this they try to “infect” teens with truth so that they’ll spread it to their friends through YouTube, e-cards, computer games, Facebook, and other truth social media assets. truth uses social media to push out messages to their target.
While pushing information is a classic paradigm of health communication, the “be an EX” campaign uses social media as a tool to pull people into the website. According to the American Legacy Foundation, 34% of smokers say they want to quit each year, but only 10% succeed. EX is designed to support current adult smokers in their decision to quit. So while EX uses many of the same tools (e.g. YouTube, Facebook, and online discussion groups) the goal of EX’s social media is to draw the audience into becomeanex.org to connect them with cessation tool, support, and resources.
Looking at the two programs side-by-side the push-pull distinction seems intuitive. However, most conversations about social media focus on pushing out messages, raising awareness, or educating. The Legacy Foundation’s programs illustrate how outcomes need to drive social media engagement, rather the social media driving the outcomes.
Laura Howe, from the American Red Cross, cautioned that not only must social media strategy be outcome driven, but it also must take into account audience expectations. An American Red Cross survey discovered that one in six people look to social media sources for information on disasters. Knowing this, the Red Cross is better able to meet those expectations by live-tweeting important information, including shelter locations, safety tips, numbers of people sheltered and fed by the Red Cross, evacuation routes, etc. Unfortunately, sometimes expectations are ahead of capabilities; three out of four people surveyed believed that if they posted a call for help to a social media platform, emergency responders would arrive within an hour. Some believed their friends or family would call 911, but others believe that emergency services are, or should be, monitoring social media platforms.
I walked away from the session with the basics (outcome-driven efforts and targeting programs to the audience) and the possibilities (how do we mitigate audience expectations of social media?) swirling around in my head and reminding me why social media is such a powerful and misunderstood tool of the trade.
I came to Ogilvy 360 DI — and social media strategy — via a slightly different route than most of my colleagues. In short, I was a longtime blogger (and journo) who’d become frustrated at how poorly blog outreach was being handled by brands that, under any other circumstance, would’ve been impeccable with their approach. They’d finessed relationships with the press and customers, but when it came to bloggers, they ended up botching it completely (clunky outreach, poor planning, uneven execution) — and as a result, not capitalizing on all that blogs and social media could offer. Ogilvy was the first place I saw that truly got that blogger relationships were not a one-size-fits-all kind of endeavor. I signed on for the job.
Even though I’m now at Ogilvy, I’m still a blogger — my fashion blog, FashionisSpinach.com, has been tapped for a wide number of influencer campaigns for brands like Chanel and Gucci — and I’m still the target for many brands stepping into the social media sphere. Not a day goes by when I’m not completely amazed at how companies try to use clunky PR methods to reach out to bloggers like me.
Here are three of my most frequently seen pitfalls.
1. Think outside the (in)box.
Yesterday, I received 96 e-mails in my blog’s e-mail inbox (of course, not all were straight outreach — it’s also the spot where I sign up for store newsletters and other e-deals). Want to know how many I opened? Twelve. In this world of e-mail overload, your note needs to catch my eye to get a click. Too often, brands blanket bloggers with generic press releases — and not a photo in sight, a major oversight when dealing with blogs.
The new rule: If I’m going to open your pitch, it should at least contain the following: A personalized note that shows you’ve actually read my blog; a introduction to whatever you’re sharing that doesn’t sound like corporate-speak; and news that actually fits in with my readers (looking at you, baby sling PR woman).
2. “Ask” and you might not receive.
I’ve been asked to participate in a number of high-profile blog campaigns lately; for the most part, I’ve turned them down. Why? The “ask” was so great it transformed a cool campaign to a burden that seemed forced and unnatural with my blogging style. Case in point: One major fashion house is currently teamed up with a group of bloggers for a month-long event. They offered free clothes and other perks, but among the requirements was to tweet 10x per day about the brand/project on one particular day of the month. I only tweet 10x a day as is — to suddenly have to flood my friends and readers every hour promoting this brand felt like a major imposition. I turned down the offer.
The new rule: Your value exchange needs to be fair and balanced — simply asking me to promote your product (because, let’s face it, that’s what you’re doing, even if it’s something I like) for little in return doesn’t work in today’s blogosphere. But it’s also important to make sure the ask is reasonable and won’t damage the brand: I suspect if I’d signed on and tweeted 10x a day about a company, my followers would’ve viewed that with skepticism, not excitement — totally defeating the purpose of connecting with new customers.
3. It’s a marathon, not a sprint.
My biggest gripe about blogger outreach? Most brands tend to heavily bombard with their pitch, hoping to generate a one-time spike in “buzz.” Instead, the priority ought to be on building relationships with bloggers over the long term. Yes, this one new perfume/shoe/spa and hotel is fabulous and attention-getting, but just because we successfully connect about it shouldn’t mean our relationship is over when the campaign is. Good social media pros develop relationship with bloggers — after all, you never know when a new campaign or a new product will pop back up. A friendly, professional relationship over time is so much more valuable than one visible blog post for one event.
The new rule: Get to know your bloggers. Follow their sites; read their blogs; reach out (with a quick hello, or a fun article that has nothing to do with the product you work on) from time to time. And for goodness sakes, if a blogger writes a great post about your product/company/amazing! new! doohickey!, send them a thank you note. It makes us feel good to know that you appreciate our support, and weren’t just schmoozing to squeeze a post out of us.